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DEC 23 2014 @ 2:25PM
There has long been a pattern
to Barack Obama’s political career on the national stage. There are moments of
soaring moral clarity and inspiration; there are long periods of drift or
laziness or passivity; and there are often very good fourth quarters. The 2008
campaign was an almost perfect coda: the sudden initial breakout, then a
strange listlessness as he allowed the Clintons
to come back in New Hampshire, turning the
race into a long and grueling battle for delegates, then a final denouement
when he made up with the Clintons
and stormed into the White House. Or think of healthcare reform: a clear early
gamble, followed by a truly languorous and protracted period of negotiation and
posturing, and then a breakthrough. Or marriage equality: an excruciating
period of ambivalence followed by a revolution. On climate: a failed cap and
trade bill … followed by real tough fuel emissions standards, new carbon rules
from the EPA and an agreement with China.
If you were to track this
pattern – strong start, weak middle, winning final streak – throughout his
entire presidency, you might have expected his worst year to be the one when he
was just re-elected and had the wind at his back. And you would be right. 2013
was truly awful. But you’d also expect his final years to be strong. Until
recently, much of the Beltway was engaged in a rather sour judgment on this
score. He was an anachronism, shellacked for the second time by the midterms, a
crippled fowl hobbling toward mediocrity. The future belongs to … Mitch
McConnell!
Or not. The latest reports on
economic growth suggest that Obama is now presiding over the strongest economy
in more than a decade. Back in 2009, this was in no way predictable, or even
likely. Compared with America’s
international competitors, it’s powerful evidence that Obama’s early measures
to save the US
economy from the abyss were more successful than many will concede. The
country, meanwhile, has experienced an energy revolution – a win-win (apart
from the planet) which has also given both Putin and Khamenei the collywobbles.
Sure, this was not an Obama initiative, but he didn’t get in the way. The
potential for solar power has also never seemed brighter.
Crime remains at historic
lows; the deficit has been slashed; healthcare costs – the key indicator of
future debt – have been falling; inflation remains low; interest rates have not
soared as many conservatives predicted; and unemployment is half what he
inherited.
Millions more have reliable
and portable health insurance coverage in a program performing somewhat better
than anyone predicted a year ago. Although the right-wing media noise machine
has done its best to obscure all of this, it will surely eventually sink in,
even though polarization has made big shifts in opinion highly unlikely. And on
the politics of it all, Obama’s coalition remains a demographically formidable
one as you look ahead. His bold unilateral move on immigration turned out to be
a political winner (against my judgment at the time). Latinos,
African-Americans, gays, unmarried women all remain a powerful base for the GOP
to counter. And Obama’s persona was and is critical to keeping that coalition
together.
On foreign policy, we end the
year with Putin reeling, Netanyahu facing re-election, Syria’s WMDs removed and destroyed, withdrawal
from Afghanistan almost
completed, and a nuclear deal with Iran still possible. Yes, we have
one huge step backward – the decision to re-engage in the sectarian warfare in
what remains of Iraq.
But so far at least, the engagement has been limited, the Islamic State has
been contained, a new Iraqi prime minister holds out more hope than Maliki, and
the Kurds and the Shiites have a much better relationship. The new relationship
with Cuba
is also a mile-stone toward a saner, less ideological foreign policy.
Obama likes the final
stretch. It’s liberating for him, quite clearly. And clarifying for the rest of
us. My point is a simple one: the long game has always mattered to this
presidency, and we are now very much in the fourth quarter. That’s when Obama
has always been strongest. And the story of this presidency isn’t close to
being told yet.
Know hope.
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